Recently, Guotai Junan Securities released an intriguing analysis report. The report delves into the speech given by Fed Chairman Powell at the 2025 Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, highlighting the important signals of a policy shift contained within.

Analysis shows that Powell's remarks convey a subtle shift in the Fed's assessment of the economic situation. Currently, the Fed seems to be more focused on the downside pressures that the labor market may face, rather than the previously widespread concerns about inflationary upside risks. This shift in perspective may signal a potential adjustment in the monetary policy stance.

It is worth noting that the framework of U.S. monetary policy is evolving towards a more flexible direction. This change provides greater maneuvering space for future policy-making. According to the report's predictions, the Fed may begin the rate-cutting process in September this year, but the pace of rate cuts is expected to remain cautious. The report estimates that the number of rate cuts this year may not exceed two, reflecting the cautious attitude of decision-makers in balancing economic growth and price stability.

This analysis provides important references for market participants and policy observers, helping to understand the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and its potential impact on global financial markets. However, given the complexity and uncertainty of the economic environment, investors and analysts still need to closely follow subsequent economic data and policy signals to more accurately grasp the direction of policy.